The record
Every signal each model has published, and what the price did afterwards — hit, missed, or still inside its window. Every number opens the trades behind it.
Return outcomes
how far Hourly signals ran, measured from the signal to the end of tracking (5 trading days)| Reached | Share of signals | Count | Median trading days to peak | 25th–75th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +10% | 56.3% | 240 | 3 | 1–5 |
| +20% | 40.1% | 171 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +30% | 31.0% | 132 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +50% | 17.6% | 75 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +100% | 9.2% | 39 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +150% | 8.0% | 34 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +200% | 6.3% | 27 | 3 | 1–4 |
| Reached | Share of signals | Count | Median trading days to peak | 25th–75th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +10% | 54.4% | 1438 | 3 | 2–5 |
| +20% | 31.2% | 825 | 4 | 2–5 |
| +30% | 19.5% | 516 | 4 | 2–5 |
| +50% | 8.2% | 216 | 4 | 2–5 |
| +100% | 3.6% | 96 | 3 | 1–4 |
| +150% | 2.3% | 61 | 2 | 1–4 |
| +200% | 1.9% | 51 | 2 | 1–4 |
| Reached | Share of signals | Count | Median trading days to peak | 25th–75th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +10% | 33.8% | 5521 | 4 | 3–5 |
| +20% | 13.6% | 2217 | 5 | 3–5 |
| +30% | 5.9% | 969 | 5 | 4–5 |
| +50% | 1.6% | 259 | 5 | 4–5 |
| +100% | 0.3% | 44 | 5 | 3–5 |
| +150% | 0.1% | 12 | 5 | 2–5 |
| +200% | 0.0% | 5 | 3 | 2–5 |
The top row is capped at +200%. Peak is measured on the adjusted daily high, so a stock split never reads as a move. Past performance does not predict future results. This is historical data, not investment advice. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.
Past performance does not predict future results. Historical blind walk-forward evidence, not investment advice.
The method behind these signals is published: OLYMPIA: Market-Regime-Conditioned Machine Learning for Equity Signal Generation — Rupert, Michael (Zenodo, 2026), DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18987223. The figures on this page are measured from the blind walk-forward record shown above, not taken from the paper.